Is There an Intertemporal Relation between Downside Risk and Expected Returns?
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper examines the intertemporal relation between downside risk and expected stock returns. Value at Risk (VaR), expected shortfall, and tail risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence and significance of a risk-return tradeoff. We find a positive and significant relation between downside risk and the portfolio returns on NYSE/AMEX/Nasdaq stocks. VaR remains a superior measure of risk when compared with the traditional risk measures. These results are robust across different stock market indices, different measures of downside risk, loss probability levels, and after controlling for macroeconomic variables and volatility over different holding periods as originally proposed by Harrison and Zhang (1999).
منابع مشابه
Is There a Relation Between Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns?•
This paper examines the intertemporal relation between downside risk and expected stock returns. Value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, and tail risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence and significance of a risk-return tradeoff for several stock market indices. We find a positive and significant relation between downside risk and the portfolio returns on the NYSE...
متن کاملThe Impact of Asymmetry on Expected Stock Returns: An Investigation of Alternative Risk Measures
We investigate the relation between various alternative risk measures and future daily returns using a sample of firms over the 1988-2009 time period. Previous research indicates that returns are not normally distributed and that investors seem to care more about downside risk than total risk. Motivated by these findings and mixed empirical evidence supporting theoretical positive risk-return r...
متن کاملAnalyzing the Incremental Information Content of Earnings Downside Risk in Explaining the Cost of Capital
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of a new measure of risk, the earnings downside risk on capital costs, and comparing the incremental information content of this measure to other risk metrics. accordingly, two hypotheses were defined and the effect of the earnings downside risk on the cost of capital as well as the information content of this measure in relation to the...
متن کاملAn empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency
a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Risk-return tradeoff Downside-risk MIDAS regressions HAR model Intraday data This paper considers the downside-risk aversion of investors as an explanation for the risk-return trade-off. We test empirically this hypothesis using intraday data along with the recent measure of downside-risk called realized semivariance developed in Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (2010). ...
متن کاملDo Distributional Characteristics of Corporate Bonds Predict their Future Returns?
This paper investigates the significance of volatility, skewness, kurtosis, and downside risk in predicting the cross-sectional variation in future returns on corporate bonds. The results indicate a significantly positive (negative) link between volatility (skewness) and expected returns, whereas kurtosis does not have a robust incremental contribution to the predictability of bond returns. Bon...
متن کامل